Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Whither 50 mpg?

You just might have noticed that gasoline has gotten a lot more expensive.

I can remember paying $.789 per gallon as recently as March 1998. On a trip to Atlanta, I ran my Oldsmobile Intrigue, a V6-powered medium-large sedan, to below the E and filled it up for $13. That was just ten years ago. Hard to believe, isn't it?

Remember when "five bucks' worth" would haul a car full of teenagers around all evening?

Now that fill-ups are about as pleasant as prostate exams, I've heard "why can't these manufacturers build me a truly fuel-efficient car? Why, I had a Honda CRX 20 years ago that was rated at 50 mpg!" or a similar sentiment, more than once. Why can't they? Two big reasons.

The first is that EPA fuel economy estimates are now calculated differently. The old methods were a joke, figuring highway numbers at 45 mph with no air conditioning, and other similarly ridiculous criteria. The new numbers are intended to reflect actual conditions much more accurately. Consequently, they're actually attainable by mere mortals, but they're also not nearly as stratospheric as they once were.

The second is that cars have seriously porked out, and that's your fault. Mine? Yes, yours. What the hell do you mean, Bo? Two sides of that story:
  • Today cars must comply with a whole host of federal standards, primarily safety- and emissions-related, that didn't exist when that CRX was prowling the streets. Side-impact protection? Frontal offset crash protection? Airbags? Low Emission Vehicle certification? More metal, more metal, more metal, and more metal. Why is it your fault? You elected Congress, did you not? I'm not saying these federal standards are bad things on balance, but they aren't free, folks.
  • Additionally, our sybaritic standards have increased dramatically over the past 20 to 30 years. Today's typical "stripper" automobile contains a level of equipment more in line with what a family sedan contained in 1985. Today's "mainstream" family sedan is often a nicer place to be than the living room in the home to which it's driven. And today's luxury automobile was barely conceivable two decades ago. You want your real wood and leather, your mega-CD changers, your automatic climate control, your power everything, your navigation systems, your DVD players, your Bluetooth connectivity, your seat heaters, and the rest of it. I understand, because I like the toys too. But again, they aren't free.
The first-generation (1984-87) CRX HF weighed 1713 lbs. The current Toyota Yaris 3-door, which does have a back seat but is probably the closest current market analog to that car, weighs 2293. A Hyundai Accent comes in at 2496. Even a bare-bones Smart fortwo weighs 1808 lbs. More weight burns more gasoline. Period.

I mentioned in the previous post that we had added a Nissan Versa to the fleet at my house (review coming soon). It's unambiguously a small car. We intend for it to be the car for a single adult at our house, which means I'll drive it to work, and Lea will drive it in the evening to visit friends, make a Target run, or whatever. I'll consider it a highly successful addition if I can get 30 mpg out of it, though I'll settle for 28 without making any further effort.

It weighs 2745 lbs, which is almost exactly what a 1991 Honda Accord weighs.

What to do?

First, adjust your expectations. The EPA numbers of days gone by were largely fantasies, and cars do a lot more now than they did then. Second, make sure you're doing the things that have always made sense and still do—avoid jackrabbit starts, brake intelligently, maintain correct tire pressure, and the like. Third, know that you can move deep into the 40s on mpg and perhaps touch 50 from time to time with a current offering, but as of today it takes a hybrid, and it must be driven carefully. Unfortunately, there isn't yet one under $20,000 that will give you the numbers.

Finally, and most importantly, realize that the upward shift in gasoline prices is almost certainly permanent. The price may come down some, but $1.50/gallon is gone forever. Also realize that oil is going to matter for quite some time to come. Manufacturers are working feverishly to bring better battery technologies to market, both for hybrids and for pure electric vehicles, and hydrogen vehicles are coming, but not tomorrow.

For several more years, it's petroleum, boys and girls. Drive smartly.

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